Conformal coverage

Empirical coverage of each conformal method on held-out trips, overall and by bin, borough and hour, with mean interval width (lower end clipped at 0) and a 95% interval from a bootstrap that resamples whole test days (B = 2,000, seed 20190101).

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conformal_coverage, page 4 of 58
schemeTEXT	methodTEXT	levelREAL	group_typeTEXT	group_valueTEXT	tripsINTEGER	coveredINTEGER	mean_widthREAL	daysINTEGER	ci_lowREAL	ci_highREAL
random	global	0.8	borough_bin	35	934	597	18.73941525631057	162	0.6017108494596225	0.6759434846473437
random	global	0.8	borough_bin	36	1011	647	18.739415256310537	173	0.6112190987298234	0.6680121411616395
random	global	0.8	borough_bin	37	994	549	18.739415256310544	249	0.5231547631073846	0.5796977633848299
random	global	0.8	borough_bin	38	1037	571	18.73941525631053	267	0.5193847350447262	0.5830267295597483
random	global	0.8	borough_bin	39	914	368	18.739415256310576	208	0.36927208264299316	0.43503901898071345
random	global	0.8	borough_bin	40	258	71	18.699900029464054	188	0.2217300033189512	0.32661491132245213
random	mondrian	0.8	all	all	7497013	5997663	20.30748185725773	347	0.7982603162648381	0.801731625542834
random	mondrian	0.8	bin	0	746041	596923	13.971567056527409	347	0.7963155873849368	0.8039830892557043
random	mondrian	0.8	bin	1	751838	601925	15.747104088341334	346	0.7978460451617826	0.8033968365682029
random	mondrian	0.8	bin	2	749162	598736	17.134974716086358	347	0.7959463486746805	0.8022814908820771
random	mondrian	0.8	bin	3	736694	589600	17.877774637646617	346	0.7974194474112489	0.8030437818386162
random	mondrian	0.8	bin	4	761776	609035	18.24931973415939	346	0.796804041775605	0.8022289368006803
random	mondrian	0.8	bin	5	752116	601896	19.103986040199075	345	0.7974118571093963	0.8030570638018611
random	mondrian	0.8	bin	6	738417	590332	19.771836288806384	347	0.7965071646126919	0.8020143993591022
random	mondrian	0.8	bin	7	761703	609609	20.711278566603145	345	0.7975465232640452	0.8028148432530354
random	mondrian	0.8	bin	8	751753	601784	24.05532530897113	346	0.7977625827431079	0.8031313210198862
random	mondrian	0.8	bin	9	747513	597823	36.44863401611276	346	0.7944624838096702	0.8048179179129438
random	mondrian	0.8	borough	Manhattan	6899923	5543996	19.144888047505784	347	0.80182362913622	0.8051268038628459
random	mondrian	0.8	borough	Brooklyn	80900	60569	29.186095828115462	346	0.744322444354483	0.7530893720871746
random	mondrian	0.8	borough	Queens	506029	387226	34.76029698977337	346	0.759174823726119	0.7710400594111816
random	mondrian	0.8	borough	Bronx	9903	5802	19.389160619135986	344	0.5743113905438728	0.5980378260371306
random	mondrian	0.8	borough	Staten Island	258	70	16.735574141858685	188	0.21456766917293232	0.3305102255217818
random	mondrian	0.8	hour	00	221721	173799	19.703892854078017	345	0.7807669382026003	0.7869331961008054
random	mondrian	0.8	hour	01	153861	122281	18.846966833514816	345	0.7909775949451161	0.7983757048335358
random	mondrian	0.8	hour	02	106424	85085	19.06990241175412	344	0.7955667369121224	0.8033621190987085